Author: Craig Shillaw
I recently had the privilege of being invited to attend a global investment conference in London. These invitations can be received with some trepidation as it is a long way to travel and London is costly for a Rand-based traveller. However, the opportunity to learn and grow professionally, and the fabulous agenda (A visit to the Churchill rooms, a guided tour of Westminster abbey, presentations by the ex head of MI 6, Charles Gave of Gavekal research, authors of topical books, experts on AI), had me accepting promptly and feeling excited.
My trip began with some time in Italy and Austria and the pleasures of first world infrastructure. Beautiful roads, minimal litter, everything on time. With that, and the height of the tourist season, there were crowds of people all over the place. The wise continentals do believe in siesta so its a battle to find anything open between 12 and 3pm. Smoking is still very popular and less regulated than SA, so passive smoking is a reality – one thing that SA has made positive inroads on.
The inclusion of a visit to the Churchill War Rooms and Westminster Abbey was a surprise, for an investment conference itinerary. Upon arrival at the Churchill rooms where we were hosted by Orbis, the presenter stated “without these rooms we would not be standing here today under these circumstances“ and that struck home . It is where the West housed the leaders who sweated blood while they planned and actioned the resistance against the advancing Nazis. Without their dedication and commitment, the world would be a very different place. One thing we must learn from history is the realisation that history can and does repeat itself. The reverant atmosphere of Westminster Abbey is not only due to the magnificent building, but also from the strong awareness of the greats who came before – there are memorial plaques (and in some cases the ashes and remains) of many famous people from history – Darwin, Gerald Manley Hopkins, Dickens, Hardy, Hawkins, Cromwell, and our very own Mandela. In a majestic place like this the sense of one’s own mortality and how small we all are in the bigger scheme of things is very strong. Thus I approached the conference with a sense of humility and being privileged to be a part of history in the making, especially for my clients.
The most topical points were: Artificial Intelligence and how it impacts our lives and the investment horizon, the attractiveness of emerging markets, the diminishing case for US investments and the global political environment. A primary goal of a conference is to introduce attendees to alternative points of view which will then be evaluated for potential impact or influence on current views, especially concerning allocation to regions or funds. This conference certainly provided that – we need to realise that the world is changing fast – remember the fax machine was voted the invention of the last century! Remember too that Kodak was once one of the most valuable companies and brands in the world! Today the world is all about data and the use thereof, which brings increasing energy demands – it is estimated that every forty requests on Chat GPT requires one litre of water to cool down the processors. Demand for water and energy will continue to grow.
Regionally a power triangle is being established between Moscow, Mumbai and Beijing where there will be a lot more activity and transfer of resources. There are currently forty airports under construction in India, showing that India is taking infrastructure spend seriously and they will want a return on capital. China has two central banks where one is dollar based and the other Yuan based. Thus they will have the ability to utilize currency to influence trade and global bond yields.
How will this affect the way we invest? It was interesting and educational to listen to global fund managers sharing their views on markets and opportunities and the take home challenge is to apply this knowledge to the managers we use – what research are they using, how flexible/dogmatic are they, and do they let EGO get in the way of any decisions. That is our role and the reason why we continue to make visits to fund managers to pump the tyres.
Warren Buffet says “The world is not going to adapt to you – you re going to have to adapt to the world“.
And finally from Buffet himself “who you spend time with is probably the most important thing in life“.
